Thursday, August 21, 2008

Buy Hillary?

McCain Closes Gap on Obama In Poll as Convention Looms

That’s today’s headline and we are not making it up.

Readers may recall that back in late June, we here at NotMakingThisUp suggested that Obama’s position in the Intrade prediction market—65.3%—would not last, and that while we never recommend stocks on these pages, we’d be willing to short Obama at that level.

As of today, we could cover that short at 58.9%. Of course, this is all theoretical: we have put down no money, nor are we suggesting anybody else do so either. Still, it feels too early to cover an Obama short. Way too early.

After all, Obama isn’t yet the official Democratic nominee, and there’s a convention coming up. And anybody counting out the Clintons before the votes are counted in Denver is, we think, making a mistake.

Conspiracy theorists we are not, but we do wonder why, all of a sudden, Obama-backer John Edwards’ affair is front-page news? Hasn’t that been around for a while?

And today's headline doesn’t look too perky for the rising star from Illinois: we have war, we have recession, we have inflation, we have icecaps melting and we have the biggest housing slump in a generation…and the best the presumed Democratic nominee can do is what today’s Wall Street Journal calls “a statistical dead heat” with his Republican opponent?

With McCain “closing the gap” now, and Edwards out of the picture, and Obama graciously—and naively—allowing Hillary’s name to be placed in nomination at the convention for a roll-call vote, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Democratic convention turn into a free-for-all.

Hillary-as-nominee is offered at 3.4 on Intrade. That should be zero by the end of next week. But then again, it could be 100.

Stranger things have happened.

Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up

© 2008 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews.
Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice. It should never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever. Nor are these comments meant to be a solicitation of business in any way: such inquiries will not be responded to. This content is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.


Dan said...

My guess is Obama will be buying up all the Hillary stock this week and naming her as his choice for VP.

Lyon Jewett said...

Checking the RCP electoral count with leaners we find McCain ahead 274-264 for the first time

My sense is that this ends up a landslide for McCain as the Halo fades from Obama's head.

CurmudgeonlyTroll said...

Confucius say... Man who can't stay on top of own houses can't stay on top of Federal government.

Tahoe Kid said...

Tahoe Kid says, "Man who is blind to prudent ethic judgement is not fit to be president.",CST-NWS-obama05.article

Anonymous said...

So Obama picks Biden as his, what a waste! Hillary has about the same foreign policy experience as Biden, and can govern and could have shored up Obama's status with white, middle class, female voters who will more than likely determine this election. One wonders what was Obama thinking about picking a guy like Biden, even with his foreign policy experience?

Sam E. Antar said...

Jeff Matthews writes:

"...we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Democratic convention turn into a free-for-all."

My response:
We can use a little extra excitement as the summer closes to an end. Bring it on!

PS: It would be great for network ratings, too.

Jack Straw said...

It's funny that Obama's message is based around "CHANGE" yet he picks a guy who has been a U.S. Senator for 36 years. Yeah...way to shake it up.

Sam E. Antar said...

"Senator, we're both part of the same hypocrisy."

Michael Corleone (Godfather II)