Thursday, August 21, 2008
McCain Closes Gap on Obama In Poll as Convention Looms
That’s today’s headline and we are not making it up.
Readers may recall that back in late June, we here at NotMakingThisUp suggested that Obama’s position in the Intrade prediction market—65.3%—would not last, and that while we never recommend stocks on these pages, we’d be willing to short Obama at that level.
As of today, we could cover that short at 58.9%. Of course, this is all theoretical: we have put down no money, nor are we suggesting anybody else do so either. Still, it feels too early to cover an Obama short. Way too early.
After all, Obama isn’t yet the official Democratic nominee, and there’s a convention coming up. And anybody counting out the Clintons before the votes are counted in Denver is, we think, making a mistake.
Conspiracy theorists we are not, but we do wonder why, all of a sudden, Obama-backer John Edwards’ affair is front-page news? Hasn’t that been around for a while?
And today's headline doesn’t look too perky for the rising star from Illinois: we have war, we have recession, we have inflation, we have icecaps melting and we have the biggest housing slump in a generation…and the best the presumed Democratic nominee can do is what today’s Wall Street Journal calls “a statistical dead heat” with his Republican opponent?
With McCain “closing the gap” now, and Edwards out of the picture, and Obama graciously—and naively—allowing Hillary’s name to be placed in nomination at the convention for a roll-call vote, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Democratic convention turn into a free-for-all.
Hillary-as-nominee is offered at 3.4 on Intrade. That should be zero by the end of next week. But then again, it could be 100.
Stranger things have happened.
I Am Not Making This Up
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Posted by Jeff Matthews at 7:15 AM